Decision-Making Models, Step by Step for 2027

Gives you a toolkit for making one important decision well, from framing the question and comparing options to countering bias and deciding with others.

Who it's for

Managers, team leaders, founders and consultants who have to choose between options that matter, with incomplete information and little time. You do not need a background in statistics: every calculation is simple enough to do on paper or in a spreadsheet.

What you'll learn

• Frame a decision in a one-page brief and test it against the six links of decision quality (after Spetzler and colleagues)
• Match your method to the situation with Dave Snowden's Cynefin framework, and widen your options with Chip and Dan Heath's WRAP process
• Compare options with a Pugh matrix and a weighted decision matrix, and derive defensible weights by pairwise comparison (after Thomas Saaty)
• Run an extended cost-benefit analysis that counts every group affected and shows who gains and who loses
• Map uncertainty with decision trees, expected value and the value of information
• Correct optimistic estimates with reference classes and review proposals with twelve questions that counter common biases
• Decide well as a group with nominal group technique, Delphi and consent, and use the Vroom–Yetton model to choose how much to involve others

What's inside

• 77 pages, 11 chapters
• Every chapter follows the same pattern: key concepts, a step-by-step method, an illustrative example from a fictional UK organisation, a ready-to-use tool, common mistakes, a key-steps recap and a "Try it" exercise to apply the chapter to your own work
• Tools to copy and use, including a Decision Brief, Weighted Decision Matrix, Decision Tree Worksheet and Decision Review Checklist
• A personal decision kit with a five-minute check and a guide to which tool to use, a 30-day plan to try it on three real decisions, and a glossary
• PDF in A4 format — read on screen or print
• Instant download after purchase

Contents

1. Framing a Decision Before You Make It
2. Matching the Method to the Situation
3. Widening Your Options with WRAP
4. Comparing Options with a Weighted Matrix
5. Ranking Priorities with Pairwise Comparison
6. Weighing Costs and Benefits Beyond the Money
7. Mapping Uncertainty with Decision Trees
8. Taking the Outside View with Reference Classes
9. Spotting and Countering Bias
10. Deciding Well as a Group
11. Choosing How Much to Involve Others

Part of The Business Library

This title is one of the 55 ebooks in The Business Library, available together for £109 (worth £1,437 if bought separately: the total of the individual prices of the included titles in our store). It is also included in The Ultimate Business Bundle, which adds 8 checklists and toolkits and 10 workbooks — all 73 products for £147.